Malaysians will go to the polls on 19th November 2022 for the country's 15th General Elections. Alongside the federal vote, three states - Pahang, Perak, and Perlis, will also be conducting state legislative elections. However, the remaining states will not be calling for their own state-level elections. Sabah, Sarawak, Melaka, and Johor had their state elections relatively recently.
This article is focused on Penang, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu. The legislative assemblies of these states decided not to dissolve their state governments claiming that it will be inappropriate to carry out any elections at all during the monsoon season as the chances of flooding are high. Penang considered dissolving initially but decided against it to show solidarity with the other Pakatan states. Unfortunately, they have no control over Federal-level elections, so an election will still take place in these states.
For the six states mentioned, they'd need to hold state elections no later than May 2023. If they are going to the polls anyway to cast the federal vote, why not simply get the state elections over and done with at the same time?
The reason is to send a political message to voters that those who are calling for the elections to be held in November 2022 simply do not care about the people's convenience and safety. Hence, suddenly going along with it and holding state elections at the same time as the federal elections, as past elections have for the longest time, is simply not an option as it would contradict the "we care for the people" message.
But is there any truth to this flood claim? Are the Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan-led states merely trying to cling to power a little longer or are they genuinely concerned about voter safety?
I've gathered news reports documenting major flooding events in the past 10 years. I consider major flooding as floods with effects lasting for days and causing displacement of people. Most flash floods have been excluded from this chart as they are too "come and go" and it is difficult to determine if they would have had a significant effect on a crucial event like an election. As you can see, the claim of floods occurring in November not only holds water - there is too much water to the point it will likely flood!
While there have been major floods in November, it has only occurred once or twice in the past decade. This affected all but 4 states in the whole country (for convenience, this includes KL). While this like looks like a low 10-20% probability of flood, I personally think this is a good enough reason not to call for an election, considering an election typically takes place once every five years. If we agree that general elections are extremely important events, then the right thing to do is to have an election when the probability of floods is at a minimum. While it is true that floods could happen at any time, especially given the changes in climate change, from the chart, we can see that an April-May slot would've been the best option.
Looking at historical precedence, the past handful of elections were typically held between March-May (except the 10th GE which was held in 1999, also in November, though I couldn't find any reports of flooding that year for the month). This makes the calling for a GE in November even stranger considering the maximum term for the 14th Parliament ends on May 2023. One wonders why mooters for a November 2022 election are insisting to call for one at this time when they could've had it months on after the monsoon.
This is not only a matter of people coming to election centres in knee-deep waters (or unable to if their cars can't get there). Having public service personnel being off-duty and running around casting votes during a natural emergency will cause great delays in rendering assistance to flood areas. Time is needed to mobilise relief centres, supplies, equipment, and people. A delay is not only inconvenient but could lead to the unnecessary loss of life.
Even stranger, the caretaker PM suggested that the elections can be halted if major floods occur. It seems that they acknowledge the risk of potential flooding. So why put us all in this position in the first place, man??
Could insisting on not holding state elections backfire on Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional?
An effective election process requires voters to be able to return home in order to gauge a true democratic reflection of the people's choice. A good number of voters live out of state. With high costs of travel, especially flights, coming home multiple times to cast a vote may simply be unfeasible. While overseas voters have a more cost-effective option of postal voting, the same cannot be said for ones who are, for example, working in the Klang Valley with a voting station in Sabah or Sarawak. If many voters have returned home for the GE, there is a chance they will not do the same come the state elections, especially if they need to fly in again just months later.
Pakatan and Perikatan would've likely done their own number crunching and would be confident that they'd be able to retain their respective states even without outstation voters. It is unlikely Penang, Selangor, Kelantan, and Terengganu will change hands. Kedah and Negeri Sembilan are harder to read and having additional voters could make a difference. Pushing the elections could affect voter turnout, but the results could still go either way (though voters living in more urban environments tend to be Pakatan supporters).
An important factor that could have an effect on the election outcome is
if floods really do occur, just as Pakatan and Perikatan warned. This would be detrimental to Barisan, as the idea for an early election was mooted by UMNO (well, a faction of UMNO anyway, with the other faction being against it. Ultimately they decided as a party so it doesn't matter). A flood will benefit Pakatan as well as Perikatan with greater voter confidence for seemingly cared for the people's welfare and ability to participate safely in the election. That being the case, voters returning for the state vote will forgive PH and PN for not calling for state elections at the same time and inconveniencing them to participate in yet another election months on, even rewarding them for their thoughtfulness. However, if a flood doesn't occur, voters may see this as political selfishness with those in power lacking confidence to win the election, and simply wanting to cling to power - a backfire on Pakatan and Perikatan.
A backfire on Barisan?
The former scenario has unfolded. At the time this article is being written, there have been reports of floods in several parts of Malaysia. UMNO's president Zahid Hamidi has gambled poorly in calling polls on the rainiest time of the year. His impatience and anxiousness to form a government could be his undoing. Only time will tell if this would affect Barisan's overall campaign.
Flooding in Klang, 11th November 2022 - Photo by Bernama
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