The actions following Malaysia’s 15th General Election with Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional’s decision to work together to form a unity “Madani” government will prove to be their undoing in the long run. A gauge of whether this is true will be seen depending on the performance of both coalitions in the August 2023 state elections (for this article, we’ll leave out GPS as the focus is on PH and BN supporters and their predicted actions). While supporters of Barisan component parties like MCA and MIC appear, largely, to accept this partnership, the same cannot be said for supporters of UMNO.
There are two types of UMNO supporters. One advocates Bumiputera (or more specifically Malay) rights, with the rights of other ethnicities serving as a secondary concern, if at all. The main concern is for their “special position” to be guaranteed, perceiving it to be under threat. The other UMNO supporters are those who are “pragmatic” – those who know that their position is secure and are more concerned with real issues affecting their well-being through effective (or favorable) policies, which PN is simply not capable of providing at this time. This type of supporter is likely to continue voting for UMNO/BN, though the same cannot be said if they are asked to vote for Pakatan. They would perhaps do so unwillingly and are likely not to vote at all.
Ever since the formation of the unity government, UMNO appears to have become less audible on matters concerning Malay rights. While this remains their primary agenda, the matter has been raised less publicly in recent times, and certainly less visible in the media – even social media, perhaps due in part to how it goes against Pakatan’s “Malaysia is for All” narrative. In comparison, Perikatan has been drumming up the Bumi narrative far louder and is arguing that the special position of Islam and the Malays is under threat. Under these conditions, it does not take much for the traditional UMNO supporter, with a perceived lack of action from UMNO, to pivot towards Perikatan. Also, UMNO working together with Pakatan, more notably DAP, is seen as a major betrayal, especially after many decades of painting them as enemies and the primary threat to their rights. Many UMNO supporters will see PN as the "new UMNO" and that the old UMNO has abandoned them.
But what of Pakatan supporters? A typical Harapan supporter is an idealist who wants good governance, fights corruption, and promotes equality. This is a stark contrast to what Barisan Nasional is perceived to represent as they have too many figures allegedly involved in corruption. Many Harapan supporters would have found this cooperation distasteful and a betrayal of the party’s own ideals.
Admittedly, there are several “realistic” Pakatan supporters who say this partnership with BN is a necessary evil since PH does not have the number of MPs to form government (which is not entirely true – explained below). Such supporters argue that Anwar needs to be given the opportunity he finally deserves to prove himself to fence-sitters, and even to PN supporters. Reforms were expected as Pakatan supporters hoped Anwar will rescue the country from certain economic doom. While it is too soon for the present Federal government to bring about meaningful change, what is certain is that 9 months after GE15, he has failed to convince PN supporters that he is a good prime minister.
Scenes like this with PH and BN standing side by side after decades of being arc enemies is still very difficult for supporters on both sides to accept. It just looks awkward and weird.
All in all, the PH-BN partnership has left a significant dent in Pakatan’s credibility, especially in its stand against corruption. This could have ramifications in future elections. Their supporters could turn to MUDA/PSM. However, with the prospect of split votes giving PN an advantage and MUDA/PSM’s lack of popularity, it is unlikely this new alliance will find much traction among Pakatan supporters. Unconvinced with alternatives and dissatisfied with a partnership with BN, a number of Pakatan supporters may choose not to vote at all. However, pragmatism will still hold and a large number of PH supporters will still be at the polls. The question is if the absentee rate will have major consequences on the final count.
A PH-BN partnership is short-term gain, an unstable one at that, and long-term loss for both coalitions. Pakatan should have gone at it alone as a minority government as they have the highest number of MPs. While it is likely BN and PN (and GPS) would have formed government if PH hadn’t allied with BN, it was far more important for Pakatan to have kept its ideals and credibility intact for the long game. Now, these ideals are pretty much destroyed with significant implications for future elections. Imagery of Anwar hugging Zahid like a saint despite ongoing investigations (which is certainly not helped by the fact that the lead prosecutor on Zahid’s case taking early retirement fueling rumours Anwar is allowing Zahid to get away with it) further undermines the situation, all the while strengthening Perikatan’s narrative against Anwar.
Strategically, PH should have conceded and allowed PN and BN to form a government. This would’ve proved to Malaysians that Perikatan is unfit to govern (at least in theory – I can’t rationale why any sane person would vote PAS back in Kelantan and Kedah. Terengganu, seems to be governed alright though). In the long game, though painful, this would have made far more sense. Trust is hard to come by and it took voters decades to find confidence in Pakatan. A betrayed trust is even harder, if not impossible, to reacquire. The matter of betrayed trust also applies to Barisan.
What does this mean for the upcoming state elections? There are several foreseeable outcomes:
A substantial number of UMNO supporters will be voting for Perikatan. It is uncertain what MCA and MIC supporters will do, but likely will vote PH (with an anything but PAS mindset) and certainly will continue to support a BN candidate
Many disillusioned Pakatan supporters will stay home and not vote, but a large proportion of them still will (due to same concerns as above).
Perikatan will gain a significant number of seats in all state elections in constituents with large Malay populations, though it is still too difficult to say if they will win Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan (probably not).
Implications:
PN will have a tighter grip hold on the Selangor, Penang, and Negeri Sembilan state legislative assemblies, but PH-BN should be able to hold on to power. Policies PH-BN make from hereon will attempt to appease PN supporters in hope of winning over fence sitters (with more cash handout forms of policies).
If PN's "Green wave" continues to gain momentum, PH-BN will reassess their relationship. UMNO will likely see a renewed internal challenge against Zahid and several BN leaders reigniting calls to partner with PN to form Federal government.
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